How Does Aaron Rodgers Affect the Steelers’ Outlook?

• The Aaron Rodgers-Steelers outlook is garnering attention, and not the positive kind
• Pittsburgh and Rodgers finally agreed to a one-year contract in what is increasingly looking like a marriage of convenience
• Oddsmakers are surprisingly bearish about Rodgers and the Steelers
• What should NFL observers think about this pairing and whether it will be as disastrous as Rodgers’ time with the Jets?

The Steelers Are Not the Jets

In what had become a tiresome dance with seemingly everyone knowing how it would turn out, Aaron Rodgers finally signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The deal is for one year and guarantees $13.6 million.

He seems happy.

Rodgers is not being viewed as a savior as he was when he went from the Packers to the Jets.

Obviously, the Jets’ tenure did not work out as planned, with his first year ending immediately due to a torn Achilles tendon on opening night, and the second year lapsing into familiar Jets disarray, mockery, ridicule, and dysfunction.

With the Steelers, there is a foundation of success, stability, a chain of command, and a leadership structure where Rodgers will not be playing QB/GM as he clearly envisioned in trying to mimic Tom Brady’s move to the Buccaneers.

In short, Mike Tomlin is the coach and Aaron Rodgers is the player. The coach tells the player what to do. Period. There will be no implication of the quarterback having the cachet to circumvent the head coach and general manager, and run to the meddling owner when he feels like it. Going from Woody Johnson and Robert Saleh/Jeff Ulbrich to Art Rooney II and Mike Tomlin is like going from a dystopia to a utopia.

Oddsmakers Are Bearish on the 2025 Steelers

In a dramatic turnaround from the heady days of the Rodgers-Jets union when there were Super Bowl predictions, oddsmakers are reluctant to anoint the Steelers as automatic contenders simply because they signed a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Their current over/under for wins is a mediocre 8.5.

Over Wins (Odds)	Under Wins (Odds)
8.5 (+100)	8.5 (-130)

For the record, the Steelers have won fewer than 8.5 games three times in Tomlin’s 18 years as head coach.

Is the low win total based on Rodgers? On roster changes? On their schedule?

The roster has not changed significantly, and they have replaced the players who left. They traded George Pickens to the Cowboys and acquired D.K. Metcalf from the Seahawks. Metcalf is more of a team player than the mercurial Pickens, does not disappear for long stretches, nor does he have the frequent drops.

Running back Najee Harris signed with the Chargers as a free agent. To replace him, they drafted All-American back from Iowa, Kaleb Johnson. Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards and scored 23 touchdowns in 2024.

They signed cornerback Darius Slay after the Super Bowl champion Eagles released him. The six-time Pro Bowler is 34, but his veteran savvy will fit in with Tomlin and the Steelers.

As for the schedule, it’s not inordinately difficult at first glance. In a familiar wink and nod from the league, they open on the road against the Jets, where Rodgers can say hi to his former team and, Pittsburgh hopes, light them up.

The Jury Seems Out on Rodgers

Amid the disaster that was the 2024 Jets, Rodgers had a 90.5 er rating, threw for 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, compiled 3,897 yards, and had a completion percentage of 63.0.

500th career TD for Aaron Rodgers!

📺: #NEvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/YPHqeLC4zg pic.twitter.com/9o5YhUQV1i

— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2022

All were relatively comparable to his career numbers when placed in the context of playing for a team in complete meltdown.

The Steelers have been looking for a franchise signal-caller since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season. They have cycled through Kenny Pickett (traded to the Eagles after the 2023 season), Mitchell Trubisky (a journeyman now in his second tour of duty as Josh Allen’s backup with the Bills), Mason Rudolph (who left for the Titans and is now back as Rodgers’ backup), Justin Fields (Rodgers’ replacement with the Jets), and Russell Wilson (the likely starter for the Giants).

Still, there is an implication that the Steelers are desperately trying to find someone, anyone, to steer the club on the field, and that Rodgers was signed due to availability and lack of options for both parties.

This suggests that the Steelers’ system is inflexible, and their success boils down to a punishing defense and strong running game.

It’s ill-informed at best and silly at worst.

Through the years, the Steelers tailored their offensive game plan to their personnel. They try to have a diverse offense, but they’re not wedded to a way of playing at the expense of what they have and what they need to win a particular game. Rodgers will not make demands of Tomlin or offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. They will come to a consensus based on winning games and move forward.

Verdict on the Aaron Rodgers-Steelers Outlook

The 2024 Steelers won 10 games playing musical chairs at QB with Fields, who isn’t good, and Wilson, who is in the sunset of his likely Hall of Fame career. They won 10 of their first 13 games before losing their last five games, including a Wild Card playoff loss in Baltimore to the archrival Ravens.

They were without Alex Highsmith and Pickens for several games. T.J. Watt dealt with nagging injuries, but still suited up. They did not trust their QBs to take major risks and adhered to a strict strategy of high-percentage plays not because of their supposed identity, but because they were making do with what they had.

They will have more faith in Rodgers to throw the ball than they did in Wilson and Fields. Rodgers might not be what he was in his heyday in Green Bay, but he is plenty good as long as he plays QB and isn’t expected to undo five decades of missteps, bad luck, and self-inflicted damage as was the case with the Jets.

Pick Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (+100)

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