Last updated Jun 11, 6:04am ET

We have some interesting UFC Atlanta picks for Saturday, June 14 at State Farm Arena. Our prediction is that we’ll see some major upsets, possibly even in the main event of the evening – Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley fight.

Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley – Someone’s Getting KO-ed!

Fighter Odds
Kamaru Usman +230
Joaquin Buckley -270

Usman’s on a three-fight skid and listed as the underdog at +225 ahead of UFC Atlanta. But fading the former champ might be premature. Let’s not forget that he was seconds away from beating Leon Edwards before getting caught.

He then lost a razor-close rematch and dropped a decision to Chimaev on his middleweight debut.

Now back at 170, Usman still ranks near the top in takedowns (2.82 per 15 mins) and only absorbs 2.74 significant strikes per minute. That’s better defense than Buckley, who eats 3.13 per minute.

Sure, Buckley’s got the power. He’s 21-6 with 15 KO/TKO wins, including some memorable finishes like the one against Impa Kasanganay.

But he’s never faced a grinder like Usman. Buckley struggles when taken down; his only real grappling success came against pure strikers.

We think that if Usman takes him down, he can finish Buckley with ground-and-pound. But that’s easier said than done, as Buckley has the nuclear option in his fists – he definitely has the power to knock Usman out.

Pick
Fight to End by KO/TKO
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Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick Prediction: Time for Miranda’s First KO Loss?

Fighter Odds
Rose Namajunas -241
Miranda Maverick +206

Miranda Maverick is tough, scrappy, and has never been finished – but that stat might not survive UFC Atlanta. Rose Namajunas is simply in a different league.

Thug Rose has faced the best of the best, which is why her 13-7 record is actually pretty impressive. She did lose three of her last five bouts – to Esparza, Fiorot, and Blanchfield – but none of those losses came easy.

Maverick, on the other hand, has built her 15-5 record, beating names like Cachoeira and Barbosa, and getting outclassed when she stepped up in competition.

Rose isn’t just more experienced; her striking is cleaner than Maverick’s, and she averages more significant strikes per minute than her. Plus, her wrestling has quietly evolved over the years. We saw it in the Cortez fight where she landed five takedowns, her most in nearly a decade.

If Maverick doesn’t get this to the ground early, she’s in real danger. Rose has the speed, range, and timing to pick her apart. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if Rose beats Miranda by a KO/TKO.

Pick
Rose Namajunas via KO/TKO
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UFC Atlanta Picks for the Rest of the Fights

  • Edmen Shahbazyan (-190) vs. Andre Petroski (+165) – Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Cody Garbrandt (+160) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-185) – Raoni Barcelos
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik (-800) vs. Cody Brundage (+550) – Mansur Abdul-Malik
  • Alonzo Menifield (+500) vs. Oumar Sy (-700) – Oumar Sy
  • Paul Craig (+300) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-400) – Paul Craig
  • Michael Chiesa (-350) vs. Court McGee (+285) – Court McGee
  • Malcolm Wellmaker (-2000) vs. Kris Moutinho (+1000) – Malcolm Wellmaker
  • Cody Durden (+161) vs. Jose Ochoa (-186) – Jose Ochoa
  • Ricky Simón (-500) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+375) – Ricky Simón
  • Philip Rowe (+112) vs. Ange Loosa (-132) – Ange Loosa
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth (-600) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+425) – Jamey-Lyn Horth

Malcolm Wellmaker is the biggest favorite on the UFC Atlanta fight card, priced at -2000, but we wouldn’t bet on this guy. Not only are his odds way too short – you need to bet $2000 to win just $100 – but we’re not 100% confident he’ll actually get the job done.

We also think that there’s a good chance that Paul Craig will upset his UFC Atlanta odds. He’s priced at +300, but this doesn’t mean much – “Bear Jew” loves staging upsets.

Another underdog we’re backing is Court McGee. He’s turning 41 this year, so he’s eager to add another win to his portfolio. He’s fighting Michael Chiesa in Atlanta, and this is going to be a grappling match, which we think McGee might win.

Our UFC Atlanta picks for all other fights are favorites with minus-money odds.   

Heidi Thomas
Heidi Thomas

Sports Writer

Heidi has shifted from general journalism to become a specialized sports writer in MMA. Writing for OffshoreSportsbooks.com, she offers detailed fight analyses and previews, focusing on niche betting markets.

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